ويشهد الاقتصاد العالمي تباينا كبيرا من حيث اختلاف السياسة النقدية، والنمو الاقتصادي، والمنافسة التكنولوجية. تستجيب البنوك المركزية في جميع أنحاء العالم للتحديات الاقتصادية من خلال خفض أسعار الفائدة، وبدء دورة تيسير جديدة. ومع ذلك، هناك اختلافات كبيرة في كيفية تعامل مختلف البلدان مع هذه التغييرات في السياسات، حيث تواجه بعض الاقتصادات أعباء ديون أعلى وآفاق نمو مختلفة. وعلى وجه الخصوص، يتعين على العديد من البلدان المتقدمة والمتوسطة الدخل أن تحافظ على أسعار فائدة منخفضة لإدارة القدرة على تحمل الديون. على الرغم من هذه التحديات المشتركة، أصبحت التفاوتات في الإنتاجية العالمية أكثر وضوحا، حيث أظهرت دول مثل إسرائيل والولايات المتحدة نموا قويا في الإنتاجية، في حين تشهد فرنسا وألمانيا انحدارا. وهذا الاختلاف له آثار على أسعار الفائدة المحايدة (R-star) وسيؤثر أيضًا على تحركات العملة عبر الدول. يلعب النمو الاقتصادي والإنتاجية دوراً رئيسياً في تحديد كيفية أداء البلدان على المدى الطويل. والوضع في أوروبا مثير للقلق بشكل خاص. وتفاقمت أزمة القدرة التنافسية في أوروبا بسبب عوامل مختلفة، بما في ذلك ارتفاع مستويات الديون والتحديات في قطاعي السيارات والتكنولوجيا. وتسلط توقعات رئيس البنك المركزي الأوروبي السابق ماريو دراجي الضوء على الحاجة إلى استجابة شاملة، ويدعو إلى وضع “استراتيجية صناعية جديدة لأوروبا” لتحفيز الإبداع ومعالجة نقص الإنتاجية. وتشكل الاستراتيجية الصناعية في أوروبا أهمية بالغة، حيث يحذر دراجي من أن استمرار التقاعس السياسي قد يؤدي إلى “الركود الدائم، أو ما هو أسوأ من ذلك”. ومع ذلك، لا تزال الحكومات الأوروبية منقسمة بشأن كيفية الرد، ويبدو أن احتمال اتخاذ إجراء ملموس محدود. وتنعكس التحديات في التوقعات الاقتصادية لمنطقة اليورو، والتي تشير إلى تباطؤ النمو وانخفاض الإنتاجية. انخفض مؤشر مديري المشتريات التصنيعي في منطقة اليورو إلى أدنى مستوى له في سبتمبر 2024، مما يشير إلى مشاكل عميقة داخل قطاع التصنيع في أوروبا. ويشير هذا أيضًا إلى مزيد من الركود الاقتصادي في منطقة اليورو، مدفوعًا بعدم قدرة أوروبا على مواكبة المنافسة العالمية، وخاصة في صناعة السيارات. وفي سوق السيارات العالمية، تواجه أوروبا منافسة شديدة من الصين. تنمو صادرات الصين من السيارات لعام 2024 بسرعة، وقد اكتسب منتجو السيارات الكهربائية الصينيون حصة سوقية كبيرة، مما يمثل تحديًا لشركات صناعة السيارات الأوروبية مثل فولكس فاجن. وأدت المنافسة إلى تسريح العمال في شركة فولكس فاجن، حيث أعلنت الشركة عن إغلاق المصانع وتخفيض القوى العاملة ردًا على الهيمنة الصينية. يتشكل التحول العالمي في صناعة السيارات من خلال التقدم الصيني في تكنولوجيا السيارات الكهربائية والتسعير العدواني، الأمر الذي أثر سلباً على العلامات التجارية الأوروبية. وفي الوقت نفسه، تتخلف المنافسة التكنولوجية الأوروبية عن القوى العالمية الأخرى، وخاصة الولايات المتحدة والصين. وتكافح أوروبا للحفاظ على مكانتها في سباق التكنولوجيا العالمي، الذي يعيد تشكيل الاقتصادات في جميع أنحاء العالم. لقد أصبحت المنافسة التجارية والتكنولوجية ساحة معركة حاسمة، مع ما يترتب على ذلك من عواقب جيوسياسية واقتصادية. وتركز تكنولوجيا السياسة الخارجية الأميركية على تأمين هيمنة الولايات المتحدة في مجالات مثل الذكاء الاصطناعي، والحوسبة السحابية، وأشباه الموصلات، في حين أن الصين عازمة على تحدي هذه الهيمنة. وبشكل عام، تواجه أوروبا ضغوطاً متعددة، بما في ذلك تحديات الديون الأوروبية، حيث تكافح حكوماتها لتحقيق التوازن بين مستويات الديون المرتفعة والحاجة إلى النمو والقدرة التنافسية. ومن ناحية أخرى، تلوح مخاطر الركود العالمي في الأفق، حيث تسعى العديد من الاقتصادات المتقدمة إلى الإبحار في هذه الأوقات المضطربة من خلال تنفيذ سياسات تعالج تحدياتها الفريدة وظروفها الاقتصادية. ديفيد وو، أحد كبار الاستراتيجيين العالميين السابقين في وول ستريت، يروي الأمر كما هو. قد لا توافق على كل ما يقوله لكنه سيجعلك تعيد تقييم كل ما كنت تعتقد أنك تعرفه. #GlobalEconomicDivergence #TechAndTradeCompetition #EuropeEconomicCrisis فصول: 0:00 مقدمة 1:05 إلى أي مدى سوف تنخفض؟ 02:52 كيف يختلفان؟ 4:18 نموذج عالمي جديد 6:04 صناعة السيارات المتغيرة 10:19 توقعاتي الاشتراك: روابط مفيدة: • LinkedIn: • Twitter: • Instagram: • Spotify: • Wikipedia: . RIWI-غير منضم: |عرب اورج
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How about Japan which also relies heavily on Automobiles sector for GDP and employment
Seems like the view count on this video has been artificially suppressed
Eu suicide itself… and if any one think EU is able to generate 800 billion per year… well this person have significant mental issues. As EU citizens my guess is that unfortunately EU react will be to impose "more Europe" to the levels of pure euro-fascism instead change the course to normality
America got Europe to fight a war where America got to sell weapons, Europe businesses to relocate to USA
Check mate Europe and you did it to yourself – how stupid are Europe leaders as they rushed to to this to themselves
The cars being pushed to consumers today will be obsolete in 5 years. It’s a complicated situation since the pattern was always to get technologies to mature out of military applications. Batteries are not very useful other than communication applications for the military. The situation is very fluid at the moment and Europe has different requirements than the us market. Less disposable income and holding on to a car for more than 7 years makes the current situation complicated. All these companies rushed to profit before they have done real development of a product. My opinion (and obviously I could be wrong) is that the Chinese car market would have the same trajectory as Chinese industrial products. In my line of work, Chinese equipment is not allowed as per specifications. So we have to agree that mistakes were made, especially by VW and eu car market will shrink until we get some technological innovation.
Gracias por el video informativo 😍👏… Creo que es más probable que BTC y ETH vuelvan a probar la resistencia y luego sigan una tendencia a la baja. Pero como siempre, la situación cambia todos los días y todo lo que podemos hacer es actuar de manera responsable, monitorear los mercados y reevaluar nuestras estrategias con frecuencia. Me gustaría agradecerle a Aaron por brindarme mi educación sobre criptomonedas mientras gano cómodamente 6,5 BTC…….
Thank you David! But….eliminate or lower the volume of the music between segments.
china already won chip and AI war. EV war won early 2024.
information is late when u analyse china from outside.
china car market is 26 mn. china firm only had 35% and only in low end in 2018. now china brand 65% price higher than vw.
by 2026 end china brand will be 85% of china market. EV and plug in hybrid will be 85% of market too.
US and EU combined market is 26 mn. not so important. asean and south American market 10 mn is low hanging fruit.
israel mobile eye tech used in china EV. will be removed after pager bomb. no israel tech in china from now. why take risk.
Birader, sendeki bu Çin düşmanlığı nedir? Sen Çini kötülüyorsun diye Çin kötüleşmiyor.
You are wrong about the American car market. Consumers don’t want EVs. It has nothing to do with charging stations, we want hybrids or gas powered vehicles. Americans are against the government forcing us to drive a glorified golf cart. Give me a v8
Europe should tax its citizens severely for energy use to promote green transition. It should also regulate all European tech companies to prevent rise of tech billionaires like the ones in the US. Furthermore, Europe should increase its media and education budget to study democratic values in the world. They should share key technologies with China for this goal. Taking more immigrants from Pakistan and other Islamic countries is also a good idea.
I disagree with you in your predictions. America's technological leadership is starting to fall behind. It may lead in some areas, but in most other areas, China is ahead. This is according to the Australian Strategic Policy Institute's Critical Technology Tracker.
Moreover, China produces four times as many STEM graduates as the United States does. And 41% of China's STEM graduates work in STEM fields, while only 20% of US STEM graduates work in STEM fields. Let me do the math for you: that's a ratio of 8.9:1. China has an overwhelming advantage in brain power.
China is finding effective workarounds to US tech sanctions. China is closing the gap in AI technology and lithography. It isn't as far behind as you think it is.
As for EVs, closing the US and European markets won't stop China. China's domestic market and the Global South markets will absorb China's production.
If you think that the US and Europe have a hope in hell of building up their EV industry, I believe you must be deluded. They don't have the raw materials. They don't have the supply chains. They don't have the skilled labor. They don't have the infrastructure (charging stations). It will cost a fortune to build all this.
Not to mention the fact that America is flat-out broke. Where are they going to get the funding from?
Every week I look forward to hearing from you. Thank You.
Dave, that is another worrying thing about America's trade being at 27%. Importing good and services is one way America exports it's inflation as the world reserve currency. This is somewhat concerning.
I'm more concerned about the gold and silver confiscation legislation that is being proposed in Israel. Is gold becoming so valuable that governments are starting to think about stealing gold and silver from their people? What about the massive repercussions that could have in the gold and silver (and mining stock) markets around the world. No one is talking about this. Is this the black swan we have all been waiting for?
Lots of inaccurate information
Detective of Money Politics is following this very informative content cheers from VK3GFS and 73s from Frank Melbourne Australia
You're too naive to think China will be losing in the EV raise if EU will follow 100% increase in EV tariffs when there's a clear difference between EU and US. 1.) EU is a composed of multiple states with its own national interests and can't decide right away common policy if many of its members especially from its top countries are going to be affected. 2.) Germany and many EU countries that is dependent much on China both on exports market and selling in Chinese domestic markets will be the first one to be burnt with Chinese retaliation if EU will ramp up more their tariffs against Chinese EVs. Take note that majority of German and other EU auto brands are highly dependent on Chinese market and even their luxury brands as well. It would even further damage Germany economy by further deindustralizing its economy with high energy inputs with no market to sell, affecting whole EU economy. 3.) The only thing that can EU do worse is to selectively tariffs Chinese EVs with varying degree of tariffs rates, therefore, Chinese EVs will still penetrate EU no matter what. Coupled with some of Chinese EV building plant in Hungary to sell for Europe, German brands will suffer more. 4.) EU doesn't have natural resources nor refining capacity to even manufacture the components needed for EV. they will still rely much from China after all in short to medium term if ever they will plan to create their own supply chain (which I doubt knowing how high the energy inputs, labor price is in EU and how far behind the EU is).
You always broaden the scope of thought!
Europe should build modular nuclear. Luckily the narrative is changing. The elites want to build data centre's. Climate no longer a concern. Do not forget Covid, do not trust the elites. Wonder why they are so keen on AI data centers?
Boring Boring … Too much music
China steals most of its technology.
Get rid of Brussels, the unelected Authoritarians
Don't under estimate china
David, the music is (always suddenly) too loud for those who listen late at night
In the US, European cars are generally seen as overpriced, unreliable and expensive to repair. To be honest though, all manufacturers have quality issues. Even Toyota which a year ago looked like the "King of The World" has suffered some black eyes recently.
It wouldn't surprise me if Stellantis leaves the US and the iconic brand Jeep is sold off. Ford may also be in danger of going defunct.
Western economies after 1980, the end of cheap oil, were driven by financialisation of debt (selling the future). Ships move on for a long way after the engines are turned off….but do eventually stop.
Thank you for the video, very informative.
I think the EU should focus on 'Distributed Energy Generation' i.e. fuel cell 'power and heat systems' as a technology to both reduce their oil/gas imports and to increase exports. Fuel cells use 1/5th the fossil fuels used by combustion engine-based generators and remove the total dependency of dirty fuels that are imported. SOFCs (solid oxide FCs) that use propane/ natural gas as well as hydrogen fuel cells and green hydrogen. Since scale has not really happened yet for fuel cells globally, this might be a good global product to export. They could take a page out of Japan's book, where their residential CHP natural gas-based fuel cells are installed in over 850,000 homes in Japan. IMO CHP fuel cells coupled with hybrid smart grid VPP (Virtual Power Plant) technologies and EVs could be a big plus for the EU going forward. A fuel cell, LiFe battery system and EV in every home showing savings on heat, transportation and electric costs would be a better bet than GenAI. Military product manufacturing would also help the EU. For the entire world I think we are either in or moving into a "Balance Sheet Recession" for several years. China is in one and we are entering one, where debt servicing or debt defaults are overwhelmingly the focus. Corporations that take years to reduce their debt levels (over buybacks/dividends/R&D) and consumers that stop spending to secure their households. In 1929 GDP declined for four years by 40%. Debt levels globally might start driving defaults up as a slowing economy's unemployment rate rises. My prediction is asset (Stocks and RE) deflation followed by stagflation.
US and Israel high productivity growth is due to outsourcing.
Us car industry will also soon only produse for US market. The tariffs on Chinese cars is going to make the US cars verry expensive and impossible to sell in other markets. While the rest if the world outside EU/US sfare is going to move on and rise.
Great piece, thank You very much
As long as we have undercover agents in our leadership, EU will sink deeper and faster
The EU wanted to become a global power but found out they were held on the leash by their transatlantic master.
Sherrod Brown sucks